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Key information from the past week
1. U.S.: rates remain unchanged
At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its interest rates unchanged. However, its post-meeting statement sounded relatively hawkish and reinforced the message that monetary policy would remain restrictive. The statement stressed the Fed’s success in fighting inflation so far, as well as the fact that the full effects of their measures would still take some time to show. When analysing the current economic situation, the Fed noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, although it was expected to drop next year. The strong position of consumers and the very good situation in the labour market were also noted, although some normalisation was also noted, demonstrated by the slower increase in wages and salaries.
2. Poland: retail sales
According to Statistics Poland, retail sales at constant prices increased in August by 2.8% as compared to July 2023, and declined by 2.7% as compared to August last year. The data were better than market expectations (-4.0%). This means that the drop in sales has slowed down (in July the y/y growth rate stood at -4.0%). At current prices y/y, sales grew 3.1% (higher rate than in July). In annualised terms for specific categories, at constant prices, only the sales of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and parts noted an increase, similarly to July. In terms of growth rate differences, the situation has not changed significantly. The largest decreases were seen in non-essential goods, typically those with higher unit value in the categories of furniture, radio, TV and household appliances, as well as newspapers, books, other sale in specialised stores. Month-on-month, however, those categories were the major drivers of sales growth.
Source: GUS. Opracowanie własne.
Source: Bloomberg. GUS. Opracowanie własne.
3. Poland: business climate in industrial processing, construction, trade, and services
According to Statistics Poland, the overall business climate in Poland has deteriorated in industrial processing, retail, construction, and hospitality and catering. Improvement was only reported in transport and warehouse management (although the indices still remain below zero). Business climate in finance and insurance activity remained lower (the index went down from 18.8 to 17.4).
Source: GUS. Opracowanie własne.
4. Poland: prices in the industry
According to Statistics Poland, the pace of deflation in the Polish industry was slightly lower than expected in August. PPI growth rate y/y reached -2.8%, against expectations at ca. -2.9%. In addition, the data for July have been revised downward, from -1.7% to -2.1%. Sold production prices increased by 0.1% as compared to July.
Source: GUS. Opracowanie własne.
5. Poland: industrial production
According to data published by Statistics Poland, sold industrial production in Poland increased by 1.0% m/m in August, against expectations at 1.7%. Year-on-year, production decreased by 2.0% (at constant prices), against market expectations at around -1.7%. The data for July have been revised upward, from -8.5% to -8.1% m/m, and from -2.7% to -2.1% y/y, which has offset the difference against expectations.
Source: GUS. Opracowanie własne.
6. Poland: wages and salaries
According to the information from Statistics Poland, the average monthly wage and salary in the enterprise sector amounted to PLN 7,368.97. Year-on-year, the nominal growth rate of wages and salaries amounted to 11.9% (an increase in the nominal growth rate against July 2023). In real terms (with the salary growth rate adjusted for price inflation), the growth rate for salaries returned above 0, i.e. to positive figures, and stood at 1.84%.
Source: GUS. Opracowanie własne.
7. Poland: consumer confidence
Consumer sentiment continues to improve. In September, Poles were less pessimistic in their perception of the economic situation. The value of the Current Consumer Confidence Indicator published by Statistics Poland increased by 2.0 points, to the level of -20.3 points. However, the pace of improvement has slowed down slightly. In a similar period in 2022, the level of pessimism was at -44.2 points. The Leading Consumer Confidence Index (LCCI) also increased, by 1.1 percentage points to -9.4 points. The evaluation of current major purchases deteriorated, while prospects for future major purchases improved.
This week:
- Poland: CPI (preliminary), unemployment
- Eurozone: CPI, PPI, IFO
- U.S.: GDP (third estimate), PCE, sentiment indicators,
- Japan: PPI, CPI, retail sales, industrial production
